HSV vs SCF
Hamburger SV (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 32.7% fair 3.06
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
SCF win 43.4% fair 2.30
Expected Goals
HSV
1.35
—
1.66
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 SCF | 11.0% | |
| HSV 1-2 SCF | 9.2% | |
| HSV 0-1 SCF | 8.1% | |
| HSV 2-1 SCF | 7.5% | |
| HSV 0-2 SCF | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).