HSV vs BMG
Hamburger SV (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
BMG win 31.1% fair 3.22
Expected Goals
HSV
1.68
—
1.35
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 BMG | 11.0% | |
| HSV 2-1 BMG | 9.2% | |
| HSV 1-0 BMG | 8.1% | |
| HSV 1-2 BMG | 7.4% | |
| HSV 2-0 BMG | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).