HSV vs BMG
Hamburger SV (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HSV win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
BMG win 32.1% fair 3.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.7% / 25.2% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.51
—
1.28
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 BMG | 11.9% | |
| HSV 1-0 BMG | 9.3% | |
| HSV 2-1 BMG | 9.0% | |
| HSV 0-1 BMG | 7.9% | |
| HSV 1-2 BMG | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).