HSV vs TSG
Hamburger SV (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 31.4% fair 3.19
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
TSG win 45.9% fair 2.18
Expected Goals
HSV
1.43
—
1.86
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 TSG | 9.9% | |
| HSV 1-2 TSG | 9.2% | |
| HSV 2-1 TSG | 7.1% | |
| HSV 0-1 TSG | 7.0% | |
| HSV 2-2 TSG | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).