HSV vs KOE
Hamburger SV (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HSV win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
KOE win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.4% / 23.4% / 33.1%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.70
—
1.46
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 KOE | 10.5% | |
| HSV 2-1 KOE | 9.0% | |
| HSV 1-2 KOE | 7.7% | |
| HSV 1-0 KOE | 7.2% | |
| HSV 2-2 KOE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).