HSV vs RBL
Hamburger SV (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 24.6% fair 4.07
Draw 21.2% fair 4.72
RBL win 54.3% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
HSV
1.25
—
2.10
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-2 RBL | 9.7% | |
| HSV 1-1 RBL | 9.2% | |
| HSV 0-2 RBL | 7.7% | |
| HSV 0-1 RBL | 7.4% | |
| HSV 1-3 RBL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).