HSV vs B04
Hamburger SV (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 26.8% fair 3.74
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
B04 win 51.4% fair 1.95
Expected Goals
HSV
1.30
—
2.00
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.8% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-2 B04 | 9.6% | |
| HSV 1-1 B04 | 9.6% | |
| HSV 0-2 B04 | 7.4% | |
| HSV 0-1 B04 | 7.3% | |
| HSV 1-3 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).