HSV vs M05
Hamburger SV (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HSV win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
M05 win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.8% / 25.0% / 33.1%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.51
—
1.31
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 M05 | 11.8% | |
| HSV 1-0 M05 | 9.0% | |
| HSV 2-1 M05 | 8.9% | |
| HSV 0-1 M05 | 7.8% | |
| HSV 1-2 M05 | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).