HSV vs SCP
Hamburger SV (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 24.8% fair 4.02
SCP win 30.1% fair 3.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.3% / 25.0% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.56
—
1.21
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 SCP | 11.8% | |
| HSV 1-0 SCP | 9.8% | |
| HSV 2-1 SCP | 9.2% | |
| HSV 0-1 SCP | 7.6% | |
| HSV 2-0 SCP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).