HSV vs S04
Hamburger SV (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
S04 win 31.2% fair 3.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 26.5% / 31.1%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.39
—
1.15
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 S04 | 12.6% | |
| HSV 1-0 S04 | 11.0% | |
| HSV 0-1 S04 | 9.1% | |
| HSV 2-1 S04 | 8.8% | |
| HSV 0-0 S04 | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).