HSV vs VFB
Hamburger SV (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
HSV win 31.4% fair 3.18
Draw 22.3% fair 4.47
VFB win 46.2% fair 2.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.5% / 22.1% / 48.4%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.47
—
1.92
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 VFB | 9.5% | |
| HSV 1-2 VFB | 9.1% | |
| HSV 2-1 VFB | 7.0% | |
| HSV 2-2 VFB | 6.7% | |
| HSV 0-1 VFB | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).