HSV vs VFB
Hamburger SV (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.99
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
HSV win 24.8% fair 4.03
Draw 21.7% fair 4.61
VFB win 53.5% fair 1.87
Expected Goals
HSV
1.20
—
2.02
VFB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): HSV ×0.900 (matched 8), VFB ×0.991 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-2 VFB | 9.8% | |
| HSV 1-1 VFB | 9.7% | |
| HSV 0-2 VFB | 8.1% | |
| HSV 0-1 VFB | 8.0% | |
| HSV 1-3 VFB | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).