HSV vs FCU
Hamburger SV (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 44.2% fair 2.26
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
FCU win 30.9% fair 3.24
Expected Goals
HSV
1.54
—
1.25
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 FCU | 11.8% | |
| HSV 1-0 FCU | 9.5% | |
| HSV 2-1 FCU | 9.1% | |
| HSV 0-1 FCU | 7.7% | |
| HSV 1-2 FCU | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).