TSG vs FCA
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TSG win 58.5% fair 1.71
Draw 19.7% fair 5.07
FCA win 21.8% fair 4.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.8% / 19.0% / 20.2%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.36
—
1.31
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.9% | fair 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 FCA | 9.3% | |
| TSG 1-1 FCA | 7.8% | |
| TSG 3-1 FCA | 7.3% | |
| TSG 2-0 FCA | 7.1% | |
| TSG 2-2 FCA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).