TSG vs FCA
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 54.5% fair 1.84
Draw 20.0% fair 5.00
FCA win 25.5% fair 3.92
Expected Goals
TSG
2.36
—
1.55
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.2% | fair 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 FCA | 8.7% | |
| TSG 1-1 FCA | 7.3% | |
| TSG 3-1 FCA | 6.8% | |
| TSG 2-2 FCA | 6.7% | |
| TSG 1-2 FCA | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).