TSG vs BAY
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 19.9% fair 5.03
Draw 17.1% fair 5.84
BAY win 63.0% fair 1.59
Expected Goals
TSG
1.45
—
2.81
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.7% | fair 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.3% | fair 4.93 |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 1-2 BAY | 8.1% | |
| TSG 1-3 BAY | 7.6% | |
| TSG 2-2 BAY | 5.9% | |
| TSG 1-1 BAY | 5.8% | |
| TSG 0-2 BAY | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).