TSG vs SVW
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 19.7% fair 5.07
SVW win 22.4% fair 4.46
Expected Goals
TSG
2.36
—
1.36
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.2% | fair 3.55 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 SVW | 9.2% | |
| TSG 1-1 SVW | 7.8% | |
| TSG 3-1 SVW | 7.2% | |
| TSG 2-0 SVW | 6.7% | |
| TSG 2-2 SVW | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).