TSG vs BVB
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
TSG win 34.4% fair 2.91
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
BVB win 43.3% fair 2.31
Expected Goals
TSG
1.60
—
1.88
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.4% | fair 3.09 |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 1-1 BVB | 9.2% | |
| TSG 1-2 BVB | 8.7% | |
| TSG 2-1 BVB | 7.4% | |
| TSG 2-2 BVB | 7.0% | |
| TSG 0-1 BVB | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).