TSG vs BVB
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 2-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TSG win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
BVB win 44.8% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
TSG
1.57
—
1.93
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.2% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 1-1 BVB | 9.2% | |
| TSG 1-2 BVB | 8.8% | |
| TSG 2-1 BVB | 7.2% | |
| TSG 2-2 BVB | 6.9% | |
| TSG 0-1 BVB | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).