TSG vs ELV
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
ELV win 20.7% fair 4.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.8% / 17.6% / 18.6%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.60
—
1.37
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.3% | fair 4.11 |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 ELV | 8.7% | |
| TSG 3-1 ELV | 7.6% | |
| TSG 1-1 ELV | 6.7% | |
| TSG 2-0 ELV | 6.4% | |
| TSG 2-2 ELV | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).