TSG vs SGE
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 57.0% fair 1.75
Draw 18.9% fair 5.29
SGE win 24.1% fair 4.15
Expected Goals
TSG
2.59
—
1.62
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.1% | fair 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.9% | fair 4.78 |
| Both teams to score | 74.2% | fair 1.35 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 SGE | 8.1% | |
| TSG 3-1 SGE | 7.0% | |
| TSG 2-2 SGE | 6.5% | |
| TSG 1-1 SGE | 6.2% | |
| TSG 3-2 SGE | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).