TSG vs SCF
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 47.7% fair 2.10
Draw 21.4% fair 4.66
SCF win 30.9% fair 3.24
Expected Goals
TSG
2.07
—
1.63
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.6% | fair 3.50 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 SCF | 8.6% | |
| TSG 1-1 SCF | 8.4% | |
| TSG 2-2 SCF | 7.0% | |
| TSG 1-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| TSG 3-1 SCF | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).