TSG vs BMG
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 18.4% fair 5.44
BMG win 19.6% fair 5.09
Expected Goals
TSG
2.57
—
1.32
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.5% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.5% | fair 3.92 |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 BMG | 8.9% | |
| TSG 3-1 BMG | 7.6% | |
| TSG 1-1 BMG | 7.0% | |
| TSG 2-0 BMG | 6.7% | |
| TSG 2-2 BMG | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).