TSG vs HSV
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
TSG win 56.8% fair 1.76
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
HSV win 22.4% fair 4.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.8% / 20.3% / 20.8%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.16
—
1.22
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 HSV | 9.7% | |
| TSG 1-1 HSV | 9.0% | |
| TSG 2-0 HSV | 7.9% | |
| TSG 1-0 HSV | 7.4% | |
| TSG 3-1 HSV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).