TSG vs HSV
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 79% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 2-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TSG win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 19.6% fair 5.11
HSV win 20.3% fair 4.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.5% / 18.9% / 18.6%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.34
—
1.22
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.0% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 HSV | 9.5% | |
| TSG 1-1 HSV | 8.1% | |
| TSG 2-0 HSV | 7.8% | |
| TSG 3-1 HSV | 7.4% | |
| TSG 1-0 HSV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).