TSG vs KOE
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
KOE win 22.3% fair 4.48
Expected Goals
TSG
2.33
—
1.34
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.0% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.0% | fair 3.45 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 KOE | 9.3% | |
| TSG 1-1 KOE | 7.9% | |
| TSG 3-1 KOE | 7.2% | |
| TSG 2-0 KOE | 6.9% | |
| TSG 2-2 KOE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).