TSG vs RBL
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
RBL win 41.5% fair 2.41
Expected Goals
TSG
1.91
—
2.06
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.3% | fair 4.11 |
| Both teams to score | 74.3% | fair 1.35 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 1-2 RBL | 7.7% | |
| TSG 1-1 RBL | 7.4% | |
| TSG 2-2 RBL | 7.3% | |
| TSG 2-1 RBL | 7.1% | |
| TSG 1-3 RBL | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).