TSG vs B04
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TSG win 35.8% fair 2.79
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
B04 win 44.4% fair 2.25
Expected Goals
TSG
2.08
—
2.38
B04
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): TSG ×1.100 (matched 11), B04 ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.2% | fair 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17.8% | fair 5.62 |
| Both teams to score | 79.4% | fair 1.26 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-2 B04 | 7.1% | |
| TSG 1-2 B04 | 6.8% | |
| TSG 2-1 B04 | 5.9% | |
| TSG 1-1 B04 | 5.7% | |
| TSG 2-3 B04 | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).