TSG vs B04
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
TSG win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
B04 win 36.9% fair 2.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.1% / 21.3% / 37.6%.
Expected Goals
TSG
1.95
—
1.86
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.1% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.9% | fair 3.72 |
| Both teams to score | 72.3% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 1-1 B04 | 8.1% | |
| TSG 2-1 B04 | 7.8% | |
| TSG 1-2 B04 | 7.5% | |
| TSG 2-2 B04 | 7.3% | |
| TSG 3-1 B04 | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).