TSG vs M05
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 55.0% fair 1.82
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
M05 win 24.6% fair 4.06
Expected Goals
TSG
2.28
—
1.44
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | fair 3.53 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 M05 | 9.1% | |
| TSG 1-1 M05 | 8.0% | |
| TSG 3-1 M05 | 6.9% | |
| TSG 2-2 M05 | 6.5% | |
| TSG 2-0 M05 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).