TSG vs SCP
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 19.4% fair 5.14
SCP win 20.0% fair 5.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.8% / 18.6% / 17.7%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.38
—
1.19
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.9% | fair 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 SCP | 9.5% | |
| TSG 2-0 SCP | 8.0% | |
| TSG 1-1 SCP | 8.0% | |
| TSG 3-1 SCP | 7.5% | |
| TSG 1-0 SCP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).