TSG vs S04
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 57.7% fair 1.73
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
S04 win 21.4% fair 4.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.2% / 20.4% / 19.4%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.12
—
1.13
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 S04 | 9.8% | |
| TSG 1-1 S04 | 9.3% | |
| TSG 2-0 S04 | 8.7% | |
| TSG 1-0 S04 | 8.2% | |
| TSG 3-1 S04 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).