TSG vs S04
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
TSG win 60.1% fair 1.66
Draw 19.4% fair 5.16
S04 win 20.5% fair 4.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.2% / 18.2% / 17.6%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.44
—
1.22
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.3% | fair 3.41 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 S04 | 9.4% | |
| TSG 1-1 S04 | 7.7% | |
| TSG 2-0 S04 | 7.7% | |
| TSG 3-1 S04 | 7.6% | |
| TSG 1-0 S04 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).