TSG vs VFB
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 2-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TSG win 48.5% fair 2.06
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
VFB win 31.2% fair 3.21
Expected Goals
TSG
2.31
—
1.83
VFB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): TSG ×1.100 (matched 11), VFB ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.2% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 21.8% | fair 4.58 |
| Both teams to score | 75.6% | fair 1.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 VFB | 7.8% | |
| TSG 2-2 VFB | 7.1% | |
| TSG 1-1 VFB | 6.7% | |
| TSG 1-2 VFB | 6.2% | |
| TSG 3-1 VFB | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).