TSG vs VFB
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
TSG win 42.1% fair 2.37
Draw 21.4% fair 4.68
VFB win 36.5% fair 2.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.9% / 21.0% / 37.1%.
Expected Goals
TSG
2.00
—
1.88
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.5% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.5% | fair 3.92 |
| Both teams to score | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 VFB | 7.8% | |
| TSG 1-1 VFB | 7.7% | |
| TSG 2-2 VFB | 7.3% | |
| TSG 1-2 VFB | 7.3% | |
| TSG 3-1 VFB | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).