TSG vs FCU
TSG Hoffenheim (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TSG win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
FCU win 20.0% fair 5.00
Expected Goals
TSG
2.36
—
1.22
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| TSG 2-1 FCU | 9.5% | |
| TSG 1-1 FCU | 8.0% | |
| TSG 2-0 FCU | 7.8% | |
| TSG 3-1 FCU | 7.4% | |
| TSG 1-0 FCU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TSG goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).