KOE vs FCA
1. FC Köln (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 40.9% fair 2.45
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
FCA win 36.3% fair 2.75
Expected Goals
KOE
1.74
—
1.65
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 FCA | 9.7% | |
| KOE 2-1 FCA | 8.4% | |
| KOE 1-2 FCA | 8.0% | |
| KOE 2-2 FCA | 6.9% | |
| KOE 1-0 FCA | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).