KOE vs BAY
1. FC Köln (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 13.3% fair 7.50
Draw 14.4% fair 6.93
BAY win 72.2% fair 1.38
Expected Goals
KOE
1.07
—
3.01
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.2% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.8% | fair 4.39 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| KOE 1-2 BAY | 8.2% | |
| KOE 0-3 BAY | 7.7% | |
| KOE 0-2 BAY | 7.7% | |
| KOE 1-4 BAY | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 6.8 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).