KOE vs BVB
1. FC Köln (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 23.3% fair 4.28
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
BVB win 54.3% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
KOE
1.07
—
1.90
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 BVB | 10.4% | |
| KOE 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| KOE 0-1 BVB | 9.7% | |
| KOE 0-2 BVB | 9.2% | |
| KOE 1-3 BVB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).