KOE vs ELV
1. FC Köln (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 47.5% fair 2.11
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
ELV win 30.0% fair 3.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.2% / 22.2% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.91
—
1.47
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.4% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 ELV | 9.6% | |
| KOE 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| KOE 1-2 ELV | 7.0% | |
| KOE 2-2 ELV | 6.7% | |
| KOE 1-0 ELV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).