KOE vs ELV
1. FC Köln (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
KOE win 51.0% fair 1.96
Draw 21.5% fair 4.64
ELV win 27.5% fair 3.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.9% / 20.8% / 26.2%.
Expected Goals
KOE
2.13
—
1.46
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.5% | fair 3.28 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| KOE 1-1 ELV | 8.6% | |
| KOE 2-2 ELV | 6.7% | |
| KOE 3-1 ELV | 6.5% | |
| KOE 1-2 ELV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).