KOE vs SGE
1. FC Köln (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 42.8% fair 2.33
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
SGE win 35.2% fair 2.84
Expected Goals
KOE
1.91
—
1.73
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.6% | fair 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 SGE | 8.7% | |
| KOE 2-1 SGE | 8.3% | |
| KOE 1-2 SGE | 7.5% | |
| KOE 2-2 SGE | 7.2% | |
| KOE 3-1 SGE | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).