KOE vs SCF
1. FC Köln (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 23.1% fair 4.32
SCF win 41.9% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
KOE
1.52
—
1.74
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 SCF | 10.1% | |
| KOE 1-2 SCF | 8.8% | |
| KOE 2-1 SCF | 7.7% | |
| KOE 2-2 SCF | 6.7% | |
| KOE 0-1 SCF | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).