KOE vs BMG
1. FC Köln (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
KOE win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
BMG win 31.8% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.1% / 23.2% / 31.7%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.75
—
1.44
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 BMG | 10.4% | |
| KOE 2-1 BMG | 9.1% | |
| KOE 1-2 BMG | 7.5% | |
| KOE 1-0 BMG | 7.2% | |
| KOE 2-2 BMG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).