KOE vs HSV
1. FC Köln (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 45.8% fair 2.18
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
HSV win 30.0% fair 3.33
Expected Goals
KOE
1.64
—
1.27
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 HSV | 11.3% | |
| KOE 2-1 HSV | 9.3% | |
| KOE 1-0 HSV | 8.9% | |
| KOE 2-0 HSV | 7.3% | |
| KOE 1-2 HSV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).