KOE vs TSG
1. FC Köln (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
KOE win 34.4% fair 2.91
Draw 21.6% fair 4.62
TSG win 44.0% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.8% / 21.2% / 45.9%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.70
—
2.03
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.0% | fair 3.57 |
| Both teams to score | 71.0% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-2 TSG | 8.4% | |
| KOE 1-1 TSG | 8.3% | |
| KOE 2-2 TSG | 7.1% | |
| KOE 2-1 TSG | 7.0% | |
| KOE 1-3 TSG | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).