KOE vs RBL
1. FC Köln (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 26.2% fair 3.81
Draw 20.7% fair 4.83
RBL win 53.0% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
KOE
1.41
—
2.20
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-2 RBL | 9.2% | |
| KOE 1-1 RBL | 8.4% | |
| KOE 1-3 RBL | 6.8% | |
| KOE 0-2 RBL | 6.6% | |
| KOE 2-2 RBL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).