KOE vs B04
1. FC Köln (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
KOE win 30.4% fair 3.29
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
B04 win 48.5% fair 2.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.3% / 20.7% / 51.1%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.58
—
2.16
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.0% | fair 3.57 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-2 B04 | 8.8% | |
| KOE 1-1 B04 | 8.1% | |
| KOE 2-2 B04 | 6.9% | |
| KOE 2-1 B04 | 6.4% | |
| KOE 1-3 B04 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).