KOE vs B04
1. FC Köln (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 28.6% fair 3.49
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
B04 win 50.0% fair 2.00
Expected Goals
KOE
1.46
—
2.10
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.9% | fair 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-2 B04 | 9.1% | |
| KOE 1-1 B04 | 8.7% | |
| KOE 2-2 B04 | 6.7% | |
| KOE 1-3 B04 | 6.4% | |
| KOE 2-1 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).