KOE vs M05
1. FC Köln (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 41.6% fair 2.40
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
M05 win 35.0% fair 2.86
Expected Goals
KOE
1.68
—
1.54
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 M05 | 10.4% | |
| KOE 2-1 M05 | 8.7% | |
| KOE 1-2 M05 | 8.0% | |
| KOE 1-0 M05 | 6.7% | |
| KOE 2-2 M05 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).