KOE vs SCP
1. FC Köln (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 48.0% fair 2.08
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
SCP win 28.5% fair 3.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.8% / 23.5% / 27.8%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.75
—
1.27
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 SCP | 10.8% | |
| KOE 2-1 SCP | 9.5% | |
| KOE 1-0 SCP | 8.5% | |
| KOE 2-0 SCP | 7.5% | |
| KOE 1-2 SCP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).