KOE vs S04
1. FC Köln (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
KOE win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
S04 win 28.5% fair 3.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.6% / 21.8% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
KOE
1.98
—
1.42
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 S04 | 9.4% | |
| KOE 2-1 S04 | 9.3% | |
| KOE 1-2 S04 | 6.7% | |
| KOE 1-0 S04 | 6.6% | |
| KOE 2-2 S04 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).