KOE vs VFB
1. FC Köln (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 32.0% fair 3.12
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
VFB win 45.6% fair 2.19
Expected Goals
KOE
1.50
—
1.90
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | fair 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 VFB | 9.5% | |
| KOE 1-2 VFB | 9.0% | |
| KOE 2-1 VFB | 7.1% | |
| KOE 2-2 VFB | 6.8% | |
| KOE 0-1 VFB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).