KOE vs FCU
1. FC Köln (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
KOE win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
FCU win 29.2% fair 3.42
Expected Goals
KOE
1.74
—
1.31
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| KOE 1-1 FCU | 10.8% | |
| KOE 2-1 FCU | 9.4% | |
| KOE 1-0 FCU | 8.3% | |
| KOE 2-0 FCU | 7.2% | |
| KOE 1-2 FCU | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: KOE goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).