RBL vs FCA
RB Leipzig (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 17.8% fair 5.63
FCA win 19.0% fair 5.27
Expected Goals
RBL
2.67
—
1.35
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.5% | fair 4.26 |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 FCA | 8.6% | |
| RBL 3-1 FCA | 7.7% | |
| RBL 1-1 FCA | 6.5% | |
| RBL 2-0 FCA | 6.4% | |
| RBL 2-2 FCA | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).