RBL vs BAY
RB Leipzig (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 26.7% fair 3.74
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
BAY win 53.8% fair 1.86
Expected Goals
RBL
1.64
—
2.46
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.6% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.4% | fair 4.46 |
| Both teams to score | 73.7% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 1-2 BAY | 8.2% | |
| RBL 2-2 BAY | 6.7% | |
| RBL 1-3 BAY | 6.7% | |
| RBL 1-1 BAY | 6.7% | |
| RBL 2-3 BAY | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).