RBL vs SVW
RB Leipzig (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 66.1% fair 1.51
Draw 17.2% fair 5.80
SVW win 16.6% fair 6.01
Expected Goals
RBL
2.67
—
1.19
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.1% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.9% | fair 3.86 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 SVW | 8.9% | |
| RBL 3-1 SVW | 8.0% | |
| RBL 2-0 SVW | 7.5% | |
| RBL 1-1 SVW | 6.7% | |
| RBL 3-0 SVW | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).