RBL vs BVB
RB Leipzig (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RBL win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
BVB win 35.9% fair 2.78
Expected Goals
RBL
1.65
—
1.56
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 1-1 BVB | 10.4% | |
| RBL 2-1 BVB | 8.6% | |
| RBL 1-2 BVB | 8.1% | |
| RBL 1-0 BVB | 6.7% | |
| RBL 2-2 BVB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).