RBL vs ELV
RB Leipzig (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
RBL win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 17.7% fair 5.66
ELV win 17.7% fair 5.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.9% / 16.1% / 14.0%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.71
—
1.17
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.2% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.8% | fair 3.88 |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 ELV | 8.9% | |
| RBL 3-1 ELV | 8.0% | |
| RBL 2-0 ELV | 7.6% | |
| RBL 3-0 ELV | 6.9% | |
| RBL 1-1 ELV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).