RBL vs SGE
RB Leipzig (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
RBL win 58.3% fair 1.72
Draw 18.9% fair 5.30
SGE win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 18.1% / 21.5%.
Expected Goals
RBL
2.59
—
1.53
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.8% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.2% | fair 4.51 |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 SGE | 8.4% | |
| RBL 3-1 SGE | 7.2% | |
| RBL 1-1 SGE | 6.5% | |
| RBL 2-2 SGE | 6.4% | |
| RBL 3-2 SGE | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).