RBL vs SGE
RB Leipzig (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 6-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RBL win 60.8% fair 1.64
Draw 17.9% fair 5.60
SGE win 21.3% fair 4.70
Expected Goals
RBL
2.77
—
1.56
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.5% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.5% | fair 5.14 |
| Both teams to score | 73.9% | fair 1.35 |
Most Likely Scores
| RBL 2-1 SGE | 7.9% | |
| RBL 3-1 SGE | 7.3% | |
| RBL 2-2 SGE | 6.1% | |
| RBL 1-1 SGE | 5.7% | |
| RBL 3-2 SGE | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Rows: RBL goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).